Don't fight the Fed

Firstly, further apologies for the lightness of blogging this month - there's just been too much Real Life getting in the way.

If you've been following my methods, you'll be unsurpised to learn that I have once more exited The Big Trade , following the Fed's announcement to quantitatively ease their way up the yield curve. I got out at $44.77 (£31.01), about a 9% sterling loss, which is unwelcome but not catastrophic.

Is this still a trade worth watching? The fundamentals argue in favour, and, indeed, long-dated T-bonds have declined markedly since December (TLT, the 20+ T-Bond ETF, was over $122 in December, versus only $104 on Friday). I have just found it impossible (so far) to make worthwhile profits from the decline through the TBT Ultrashort vehicle. Maybe that is just bad luck (similar trades using Ultrashort ETF's have worked well, notably the SRS real estate short).

At any event, I'm out for now, although I certainly won't be buying T-bonds any time soon.